The Democrats Have a Messaging Problem
They are a lot better at governing, but a lot worse at campaigning.
There is a longstanding belief that governing well is the best way to win elections. Intuitively, this makes sense, and it is probably true to a very significant degree, but it does not offer a complete explanation of recent election trends. That is, if strong governance were the only factor in determining election outcomes, Democrats should be in power more frequently and win more overwhelmingly than they actually do. Unfortunately, what American liberals overlook is that good governance outcomes only matter if they can convince the electorate of their success. This is where Democrats fail, and it is costing them elections.
The economy is the best example to illustrate this argument. Historically, Democratic presidents have consistently outperformed Republican presidents in nearly every relevant metric. For example, G.D.P. under Democratic presidents has grown at an average rate of 4.6% since 1933 compared to the 2.4% under Republican presidents. Obviously, there might be extenuating circumstances that are not accounted for in the raw data. Yes, George W. Bush governed during the onset of the 2008 Financial Crisis. Yes, Donald Trump was not directly responsible for the pandemic. However, the data still suggest that when accounting for these circumstances, Republican economic performance still trails Democratic economic performance so consistently that sheer luck and coincidence are not adequate explanations.
One possible explanation for why this contrast does not reflect accurately in people’s perceptions is that raw G.D.P. numbers might not be an appropriate representation of how ordinary people are actually getting by. This might be true, but most other economic metrics tell a similar story. For instance, during Democratic presidencies, unemployment has fallen at a rate of 0.8 percentage points, while it has risen by 1.1 percentage points under Republicans. Income under Democrats has also grown at a significantly higher rate across all income levels than Republicans. Few people would argue that these metrics are not pertinent to the average American.
All of this begs the question: if Democrats perform so much better than Republicans so consistently, why are Republicans always winning on issues about the economy? A Gallup poll in 2023 found that 53% of Americans believe that the G.O.P. will do a better job on the economy than Democrats while only 39% believed the contrary. There are two possible explanations for this.
Firstly, Republicans are much better at exploiting the limited Democratic weaknesses in the economy. Throughout this year’s election campaign, Republicans have focused on one issue above all else: inflation. This is because inflation is almost always above 0%, and most people hate it. Although inflation reached a relatively healthy level of 3% in July, the fact that it is still above 0% means prices are still rising, and any price increases are likely to disaffect most people. Notice that Republican presidencies also preside over periods of high inflation, but Democrats rarely choose to talk about the issue, even though it is one of the more salient economic metrics that people are concerned about.
A similar example is unemployment. The Obama administration’s record on employment was significantly better than the junior Bush administration’s record. However, unemployment was still probably Obama’s largest weakness when running for reelection. Republican nominee Mitt Romney drilled the president on unemployment incessantly, framing it as a weak point of the administration. On the other hand, when Bush Jr. was running for reelection, unemployment hardly came up in the Bush v. Kerry debate, demonstrating the Democrats’ inability to talk about real issues that matter to people.
The second reason why Democrats are terrible at messaging is that they do not know how to communicate with the average American. When Democratic politicians talk about the economy, they frequently get into long-winded discussions about the nuances of a tax or spending bill as opposed to simple, digestible information normal people can resonate with. Politicians like Elizabeth Warren have even intentionally branded themselves as policy experts or Washington technocrats. These are not discussions the average person has time for or even understands. When Tim Walz described Trump as “weird,” there is a reason why it became so viral. Instead of using political jargon to describe the threat that Republicans pose, “weird” was simple, straight to the point, and easy to understand. Unfortunately, this is a trick that Republicans have mastered for a long time. Trump speaks like a sixth-grader not because his vocabulary is actually that limited, but because he understands how to communicate using very basic language that most Americans can understand.
Democrats have long been missing a clear messaging strategy. It also isn’t just about the economy. Democrats have consistently failed to diagnose the most salient issues for Americans, and most importantly have failed to communicate a clear and coherent message that resonates with normal people. They’ve done the hard part: governing well, but until they learn how to talk about issues that matter, much of their effort in improving the livelihoods of millions of Americans will be in electoral vain.